Even with the huge surge in international travel, the recovery of the sector to pre-COVID-19 levels continues to be driven mainly by domestic travel, which is projected to recover to 2019 levels earlier than international passenger numbers. The baseline projections for global passenger traffic indicate that the industry will recover to 2019 levels by 2024. Despite a number of headwinds, the opening up of Chinese aviation markets represents a positive shift in the path to recovery. This was especially apparent with the recent resurrection of testing requirements for travellers from China. COVID-19 surges and its variants continue to pose a challenge for seamless international travel, especially amidst knee-jerk reactions by a number of governments. Although demand for leisure travel will likely remain strong in the first half of 2023, growth levels may be more subdued in the latter half of 2023 as the effects of higher interest rates are felt across economies. ![]() Global passenger traffic is forecast to reach 92% of 2019 levels in 2023. Medium-term global passenger traffic projection (indexed, 2019 = 100) ![]() On the other hand, a strong labour market and the re-opening of China, the second largest aviation market after the United States, represents an important boost to global passenger traffic.Įven with the ongoing presence of COVID-19 variants and the recent imposition of travel restrictions and testing requirements by several countries on travellers departing China, the re-opening of its borders represents an overall gain, both domestically within the Chinese aviation market and for international travel.Ĭhart 1. This could dampen or delay the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and reaching 2019 passenger traffic volumes. On the one hand, the possible slowing in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in major economies coupled with the rise in airfares due to higher jet fuel prices weigh negatively on demand, representing a downside risk for the industry in 2023. The speed of the recovery for 2023 and beyond still depends on several factors with a number of market pendulums moving in opposite directions, thus creating a level of uncertainty. Thus, uncertainty regarding a swift recovery of the aviation industry remains omnipresent, especially in the near term. Aviation is very much linked to such macroeconomic factors – like any other good or service, the impact of prices and disposable income remain important determinants of air transport demand. While higher interest rates help to cool aggregate demand and ensure price stability, it may induce an economic slowdown. Many analysts suggest that the inflation rate has already peaked and will subside in 2023, facilitated by aggressive monetary tightening by central banks. The interplay between geopolitical conflicts and rising prices remains a top economic threat to the global economy. The most obvious manifestation of such risks is the significant increase in inflation across many economies. From the ongoing conflict in Ukraine to a looming economic slowdown in many major economies, there are risks that threaten to disrupt the pace of the recovery from the pandemic. Market segments vary markedly – international passenger numbers were at 60% of 2019 levels whereas domestic was at 79% in 2022.Īs the COVID-19 pandemic shaped many near-term policy decisions over the last three years, the global economy faces an array of challenges in 2023. Global passenger traffic finished the year at 72% of 2019 levels. With the removal of travel restrictions and quarantine requirements for vaccinated travellers in 2022, there has been an upsurge in demand across many markets. Montreal, 22 February 2023 – Airports Council International (ACI) World has published its twelfth quarterly assessment analyzing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, its effects on airports, and the path to recovery. The baseline projections for global passenger traffic indicate that industry passenger traffic will recover to 2019 levels by 2024.Despite macroeconomic headwinds, traveller sentiment remains strong, and the re-opening of China will support the ongoing recovery ![]() ![]() Global passenger traffic is forecast to reach 92% of 2019 levels in 2023.The recovery in passenger volumes in 2022 remained uneven across the globe with Latin American-Caribbean markets reaching 91% of 2019 levels whereas the Asia-Pacific region lagged at 52%.Global passenger traffic finished 2022 at 72% of 2019 levels – international passenger numbers reached 60% of 2019 levels whereas domestic was at 79% in 2022.
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